HORN OF AFRICA : ETHIOPIA’S AGONY

By Antony Sguazzin

While Ethiopia’s Tigrayan rebels may be within 200 miles of Addis Ababa, a storming of the capital and a reprise of their 1991 overthrow of the Derg regime looks unlikely. Instead, Africa’s second most populous country may be heading toward an impasse that could see more lives lost, trade routes disrupted and further economic damage inflicted on what was one of the continent’s fastest-growing economies.

« They are in my opinion very unlikely to approach the capital,» said Adem Abebe, a program officer at the International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance. « There is a realization that this is a stalemate.»

Still, there’s scant chance of talks. The government of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed describes the Tigrayans as terrorists and refuses to engage with them, and the rebels themselves have shown little appetite for negotiation.

And despite their recent advances — a remarkable turnaround after being driven out of their capital Mekelle a year ago — the rebels may not be in as strong a position as they appear.

The coalition of allies they have put together have one thing in common — opposition to Abiy — and little else. Addis Ababa is comparatively well fortified and the Tigrayans have many enemies both within the city and beyond, not least the Amhara, an ethnic group of 30 million people.

If the war continues, « it’s going to be very protracted and very very bloody, » said Edward Hobey-Hamsher, a senior Africa analyst at U.K. risk consultancy Verisk Maplecroft. « Whatever emerges from that will be very short lived.»